Document Details

Document Type : Article In Journal 
Document Title :
On Forecasting Techniques In Socio-Economic Environment
أساليب التنبؤ في محيط اقتصادي اجتماعي
 
Subject : Business Administration 
Document Language : Arabic 
Abstract : Several forecasting methods for a target (or response) variable Y is considered. Of these, even simple explanatory-variable-based forecast, let alone multiple explanatory-variable-based causal-chain forecasting models, should provide superior, to most “expert” judgment and various extrapolation-based, time series analyzing methods of Box-Jenkins type and other “black box” related forecasts. Steps in the development of the relevant theoretical apparatus for judging the quality of data base which, in turn, affects the qualities of individual forecasting methods are described in the text to prove the point. All the investigated forecasting methodologies have been tested for accuracy and compared with actual data for the forecast period. The data series chosen for the experiment is the annual series “Total International Passengers” at the Jeddah King Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) for the years 1975-1987 of which 1975-1981 is considered “historical” data and, based on this interval, forecasts were made for the years 1982 - 1987. 
ISSN : 1319-0997 
Journal Name : Economics and Administration Journal 
Volume : 12 
Issue Number : 1 
Publishing Year : 1419 AH
1999 AD 
Article Type : Article 
Added Date : Sunday, October 11, 2009 

Researchers

Researcher Name (Arabic)Researcher Name (English)Researcher TypeDr GradeEmail
محمد محمد نور قوتة Mohammed M. N. Quotah Researcher  
ميرك كراسيكMirek KarasekResearcher  

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